World Championships – real biathlon

Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by

With the World Championships around the corner, it’s worth looking at the best-performing athletes after Christmas again. I think it’s fair to assume that the majority of medal winners will come from in-form athletes going into the championship, although history tells us there are a handful of surprises usually. Below, I listed the best biathletes (ranked by Overall Performance Scores) for the January races – full results for the entire field here: men & women.

Note: Only athletes with at least 3 races in January are included. The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Men

World Cup leader Johannes Thingnes Bø tops the ranking unsurprisingly; he won 3 out of 6 races after Christmas and set the top ski time in 5 of them. However, his overall score is down from last season, because his non-team shooting percentage is 6.3% lower. Sturla Holm Lægreid‘s hit rate also declined slightly in January, but it still stands at an incredible 92.9%, giving him 4 wins this season. Even though Lukas Hofer failed to make a single podium so far, he has been very consistent; the fourth-fastest skier overall and top 6 in all but one of the races in trimester 2.

Quentin Fillon Maillet‘s average race rank wouldn’t tell you (forgetting a penalty loop in Oberhof is to blame for that), but he has been best of the rest behind the Norwegians this season (4 podiums in total, including 2 in the last 2 races in Antholz). Tarjei Bø is currently at his best ski speed since 2010–11 (third-fastest overall), but he is also the slowest shooter in the top 10. Arnd Peiffer‘s hit rate of 90.0% this winter is a tied career-best for him, Johannes Dale is the field’s second-fastest skier (both for the season and January-only).

The other two race winners, Alexander Loginov and Sebastian Samuelsson, come to Pokljuka with some question marks. Reigning sprint world champion Loginov only had one top 6 result all season, his win in Antholz, while Samuelsson’s ski form decline Dec. to Jan. is the worst of the men’s field. The other multiple podium finishers this winter are: Émilien Jacquelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Fabien Claude (who also saw a big decline in January).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
1	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	6	4.7	46.8	-1.98	-0.35	-0.70	-1.36
2	Laegreid	Sturla Holm	NOR	6	5.7	45.3	-1.30	-1.17	-1.23	-1.25
3	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	6	6.3	38.8	-1.45	-0.65	-0.84	-1.15
4	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	5	21.4	33.4	-1.36	-0.55	-1.55	-1.15
5	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	6	7.7	40.8	-1.47	-0.86	-0.23	-1.14
6	Peiffer	Arnd	GER	6	14.5	29.8	-1.24	-1.06	-0.62	-1.11
7	Dale	Johannes	NOR	6	10.7	34.2	-1.60	-0.45	-0.14	-1.09
8	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	6	11.2	30.3	-1.42	-0.04	-1.34	-1.01
9	Doll	Benedikt	GER	6	15.8	25.5	-1.29	-0.35	-1.13	-1.00
10	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	5	15.4	29.6	-0.99	-1.06	-0.66	-0.97
11	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	6	15.2	25.8	-1.23	-0.35	-1.00	-0.95
12	Fak	Jakov	SLO	6	15.5	27.7	-0.82	-1.06	-1.23	-0.94
13	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	6	19.2	23.0	-0.96	-0.86	-0.51	-0.87
14	Lesser	Erik	GER	6	20.0	22.8	-0.82	-0.76	-1.34	-0.87
15	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	6	15.5	27.2	-0.75	-1.17	-0.69	-0.86
16	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	6	15.8	25.3	-1.07	-0.35	-1.00	-0.85
17	Christiansen	Vetle Sjaastad	NOR	5	21.6	26.0	-1.01	-0.55	-0.53	-0.82
18	Bjoentegaard	Erlend	NOR	4	14.3	27.3	-0.80	-1.06	-0.28	-0.82
19	Eder	Simon	AUT	6	19.0	24.0	-0.45	-1.37	-1.29	-0.82
20	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	5	15.2	25.0	-0.64	-1.06	-0.86	-0.79
21	Yaliotnau	Raman	BLR	3	29.3	18.0	-1.13	-0.30	-0.08	-0.76
22	Pidruchnyi	Dmytro	UKR	4	38.5	11.4	-1.07	0.13	-0.89	-0.70
23	Windisch	Dominik	ITA	5	33.0	14.2	-1.11	0.09	-0.47	-0.69
24	Horn	Philipp	GER	4	33.0	10.3	-1.18	-0.04	0.21	-0.68
25	Smolski	Anton	BLR	4	32.5	8.8	-0.76	-0.55	-0.53	-0.67
26	Pryma	Artem	UKR	4	32.8	10.0	-0.68	-0.55	-0.84	-0.66
27	Seppala	Tero	FIN	4	34.3	8.0	-1.07	-0.04	0.21	-0.62
28	Leitner	Felix	AUT	6	25.7	16.5	-0.82	-0.55	0.28	-0.61
29	Bocharnikov	Sergey	BLR	5	34.0	14.8	-0.58	-0.68	-0.48	-0.59
30	Claude	Fabien	FRA	6	30.5	18.3	-0.92	0.26	-0.82	-0.56
31	Finello	Jeremy	SUI	5	35.0	9.4	-1.06	0.34	-0.20	-0.55
32	Guigonnat	Antonin	FRA	6	26.2	13.5	-0.90	0.26	-0.70	-0.54
33	Giacomel	Tommaso	ITA	4	43.5	2.5	-0.70	0.30	-1.60	-0.52
34	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	5	33.2	8.4	-0.90	0.21	-0.26	-0.50
35	Nelin	Jesper	SWE	3	40.0	5.8	-1.17	0.16	1.18	-0.50
36	Doherty	Sean	USA	4	39.8	4.0	-0.36	-0.72	-0.60	-0.50
37	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	6	24.5	16.7	-0.97	0.26	0.04	-0.49
38	Rees	Roman	GER	3	28.3	13.7	-0.55	-0.65	0.31	-0.47
39	Komatz	David	AUT	6	22.8	17.0	-0.11	-1.37	0.03	-0.46
40	Gow	Christian	CAN	4	45.3	9.8	-0.22	-0.55	-1.30	-0.44
41	Dudchenko	Anton	UKR	3	26.3	17.3	-0.01	-1.27	-0.38	-0.42
42	Gow	Scott	CAN	4	48.5	0.8	-0.16	-0.38	-1.42	-0.38
43	Bormolini	Thomas	ITA	4	42.0	9.5	-0.52	-0.21	0.01	-0.37
44	Dombrovski	Karol	LTU	4	47.8	4.5	-0.05	-0.89	0.15	-0.27
45	Nordgren	Leif	USA	4	46.3	0.5	0.14	-1.06	-0.07	-0.23
46	Streltsov	Kirill	RUS	4	43.3	6.3	-0.26	-0.21	-0.06	-0.22
47	Strolia	Vytautas	LTU	4	42.0	8.8	-0.41	0.13	-0.01	-0.21
48	Stvrtecky	Jakub	CZE	4	58.8	1.5	-0.86	0.64	1.07	-0.20
49	Femling	Peppe	SWE	5	37.4	5.0	0.03	-0.42	-0.67	-0.19
50	Claude	Emilien	FRA	4	54.8	2.5	-0.10	-0.38	-0.03	-0.17

Women

Lisa Theresa Hauser won most World Cup points in January, something few would have predicted before Christmas. Being both accurate (93.0%) and fast (26.2s) makes her the most efficient shot on the women’s side at the moment. Combined with her new-found top10 ski speed, she is a threat in all events. Tiril Eckhoff followed her trajectory from last season almost exactly: four incredible World Cups in a row, followed by a considerable dip in form. Eckhoff has most wins (6) and podiums (8), but will her disappointing showing in Antholz last year be on her mind?

World Cup leader Marte Olsbu Røiseland has made only one podium in trimester 2, however, she remains virtually tied with Eckhoff as the field’s top skier. Hanna Öberg managed two wins and the second-most podiums this winter (7). Julia Simon, who alongside Öberg is the fastest shooter, won two of the last 4 races, still, she is arguably the least consistent (last four positions: 59-1-62-1). Monika Hojnisz-Staręga comes 5th, but she only did 3 races (2 of them sprints), which inflates her ski speed for this ranking. Nonetheless, she is much improved, winning the European Championship Individual recently.

Dorothea Wierer‘s ski speed improved after Christmas (still off her pace from the last two seasons); in contrast, Franziska Preuß is skiing faster than ever. Anaïs Chevalier-Bouchet‘s statistics stand out in particular: her hit rate is roughly 6% lower than in any of her previous five seasons, at the same time she currently skies roughly 1.5% faster than ever before. The two other multiple podium finishers, Dzinara Alimbekava and Elvira Öberg, have both been struggling in January (no top 6 result).

Top 50 Overall performance scores (z-Scores) | Non-Team events January 2021

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
1	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	6	4.2	46.8	-1.09	-1.26	-1.62	-1.20
2	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	6	6.2	45.2	-1.48	-0.51	-1.24	-1.17
3	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	6	10.0	35.0	-1.44	-0.51	-0.82	-1.10
4	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	6	8.5	39.7	-0.93	-0.79	-2.00	-1.02
5	Hojnisz-Starega	Monika	POL	3	14.7	27.3	-1.14	-0.98	-0.47	-1.01
6	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	6	11.2	34.2	-0.88	-0.89	-1.83	-1.00
7	Mironova	Svetlana	RUS	6	10.7	32.2	-1.05	-0.60	-1.48	-0.97
8	Preuss	Franziska	GER	6	12.8	32.2	-1.00	-0.70	-1.28	-0.95
9	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	6	14.2	27.8	-1.22	-0.51	-0.38	-0.91
10	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	5	12.0	32.0	-0.82	-1.10	-0.57	-0.87
11	Simon	Julia	FRA	6	23.7	31.5	-1.28	0.52	-1.93	-0.84
12	Braisaz-Bouchet	Justine	FRA	6	15.0	27.3	-1.16	-0.32	-0.47	-0.83
13	Pavlova	Evgeniya	RUS	5	19.4	23.2	-0.76	-0.51	-0.97	-0.71
14	Herrmann	Denise	GER	6	20.0	20.2	-1.36	0.52	-0.37	-0.70
15	Kaisheva	Uliana	RUS	6	18.3	22.5	-0.54	-0.79	-1.22	-0.69
16	Persson	Linn	SWE	6	18.8	22.2	-0.75	-0.89	0.16	-0.68
17	Haecki	Lena	SUI	4	32.0	9.0	-0.58	-0.51	-1.45	-0.66
18	Bescond	Anais	FRA	6	16.0	24.8	-0.83	-0.60	0.10	-0.65
19	Alimbekava	Dzinara	BLR	6	19.3	20.3	-0.88	-0.32	-0.26	-0.64
20	Hettich	Janina	GER	6	21.5	20.7	-0.52	-1.07	-0.11	-0.63
21	Gasparin	Selina	SUI	4	34.0	10.5	-1.10	-0.04	0.30	-0.63
22	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	5	23.0	18.0	-0.57	-0.86	-0.33	-0.63
23	Bendika	Baiba	LAT	4	36.0	8.5	-1.20	0.43	-0.34	-0.63
24	Chevalier-Bouchet	Anais	FRA	6	11.5	31.0	-0.88	-0.14	-0.45	-0.61
25	Kuklina	Larisa	RUS	5	22.4	18.6	-0.27	-0.98	-1.29	-0.60
26	Sola	Hanna	BLR	4	35.5	6.3	-1.24	0.89	-0.91	-0.58
27	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	6	23.8	18.2	-0.61	-0.42	-0.83	-0.58
28	Kruchinkina	Elena	BLR	5	27.4	19.0	-1.21	0.31	0.80	-0.53
29	Lien	Ida	NOR	4	38.0	8.5	-0.99	0.11	0.45	-0.50
30	Cadurisch	Irene	SUI	4	41.3	4.8	-0.25	-0.51	-1.65	-0.49
31	Eder	Mari	FIN	3	42.0	2.8	-1.06	-0.04	1.27	-0.48
32	Lunder	Emma	CAN	5	33.0	11.5	-0.23	-0.63	-1.36	-0.48
33	Colombo	Caroline	FRA	4	31.8	10.0	-0.46	-0.51	-0.28	-0.45
34	Knotten	Karoline Offigstad	NOR	6	28.2	12.3	0.18	-1.45	-1.05	-0.44
35	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	5	32.4	17.0	-0.71	0.31	-0.84	-0.43
36	Zdouc	Dunja	AUT	6	22.7	17.3	-0.15	-0.98	-0.26	-0.41
37	Schwaiger	Julia	AUT	4	34.0	11.0	-0.60	-0.20	0.15	-0.39
38	Pidhrushna	Olena	UKR	4	42.5	6.8	-0.50	-0.51	0.53	-0.38
39	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	5	35.0	11.0	-0.73	0.09	0.23	-0.38
40	Bankes	Megan	CAN	3	51.7	5.3	-0.17	-0.28	-1.56	-0.37
41	Avvakumova	Ekaterina	KOR	5	31.0	11.4	-0.28	-0.63	-0.05	-0.36
42	Zuk	Kamila	POL	3	41.3	0.7	-0.77	-0.04	1.08	-0.34
43	Innerhofer	Katharina	AUT	3	57.0	0.7	-1.13	0.89	0.66	-0.33
44	Talihaerm	Johanna	EST	4	45.5	3.5	-0.30	-0.98	1.25	-0.31
45	Gasparin	Elisa	SUI	4	42.3	4.0	-0.43	0.11	-0.43	-0.27
46	Kazakevich	Irina	RUS	4	57.5	1.0	-0.82	0.74	0.07	-0.26
47	Chevalier	Chloe	FRA	4	45.5	7.3	-0.75	0.27	0.93	-0.25
48	Jislova	Jessica	CZE	3	53.0	0.3	-0.27	-0.51	0.63	-0.23
49	Gasparin	Aita	SUI	4	42.8	5.8	-0.01	-0.36	-0.97	-0.23
50	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	5	38.0	15.0	0.18	-0.75	-0.77	-0.20

Predicting the World Championships in Pokljuka

Posted on 2021-02-06 | by

biathlonanalytics | Leave a Comment

One of the reasons I really love biathlon is that it is unpredictable. Yes, there are favourites who win more regularly than others, but there are always a large number of athletes who can take the win. Yet my next Tableau Dashboard is called Pokljuka Predictions. Well, I ran out of space to add “well, not really”. But to make predictions to the best of one’s ability, having all the right information in front of you is the best option you have. And that is what this dashboard is supposed to do: provide useful information that allows making the best possible prediction.

The dashboard works per Race Category (gender) and Race Discpline. After selecting these two parameters we can have a look at the charts but first, let’s look at some info on the events.

They are held in Slovenia, at the Pokljuka Biathlon Stadium

The program is a busy one for the athletes, but this report excludes the relays.

After setting the filters, three of the four “columns” show data, where the central column at the bottom shows data when an athlete is selected.

The scatterplot shows the athletes related to their last race in Pokljuka in this Discipline and their current standing in the World Cup for this discipline. X’s mean that the athlete either did not participate in the most recent Pokljuka event, or is not in the current season Discipline Standings. It gives an idea of what athletes are good this season and did well in the last race in Pokljuka for this discipline. They will show up in the top right.

The following two charts show similar data from above but individually: the race results for this discipline in previous seasons (when available), and the current World Cup standings for this discipline with points and ranking in brackets.

When selecting an athlete in any of these charts, we can see the current season results in the selected discipline for the selected athlete, compared to their career (since the 16-17 season) average (dark blue dashed line) and the current season’s average (light blue dotted line).

This is followed by the athlete’s current form based on consistency;it shows the absolute change in rankings per season, so the higher the value (lower on the chart), the larger the inconsistency. And the steepness of the decline shows the athlete’s form. Steep points to a big change in results, where a almost flat decline indicates that recent results were similar. It does not indicate however if these results were high or low in the ranking. If an athletes was 45th, 43rd and 44th the line will be almost flat indicating strong consistency. this will gie you an idea of likelyhood that it will change soon, or if this athlete’s performance is pretty reliable.

Last thing to mention is that when you hover your mouse over a name of an athlete, it highlights that athlete in other charts.

So all in all not a true predictor, but a tool providing information to make a better-informed prediction quicker.

UPDATE – Predictions after all, and some updates to the dashboard

So, based on the information on the dashboard I really felt I should make some predictions after all. Although I will not commit to pointing who will get what place, I will highlight the top favourites for every race, based on the dashboard.

I also changed one chart on the dashboard replacing the one that showed the current standing to the cumulative points this season to give a better idea of when the points were scored; recently or early in the season:

Men’s Sprint – It’s hard not to bet on JTB here; He won in Pokljuka in the 18-19 season, he won the last two sprints, has a lowest ranking of 4th this season and leads the Spring Standings. His brother Tarjei, was 4th two seasons ago, had a win and second place this season but a lowest ranking of 15th, so definitely more inconsistent. He’s 4th in the current standings. Outside favourites are Lukas Hofer, recently in good shape and improving, and despite his miserable rankings this season so far I would not write off Loginov: he was 3rd in 18-19 at this venue, and won last year’s World Championships in Antholz, showing he knows how to peak for a major championship. Dale and Laegreid are 2nd and 3rd in the current season standings but with only one and zero respectively World Championships and Pokljuka races under their belt (with a 23rd place for Dale in Antholz) I can’t see them ending up with a gold medal.

Women’s Sprint – Eckhoff won the last three Sprints of this season, but did not participate in the most recent Sprint in Pokljuka. She also leads the standings this season. Wierer was 2nd in 18-19 in Pokljuka, and is 10th in the current standings. She has been inconsistent this season but her last race was a 2nd place. I would consider Preuss an outsider, being 9th in Pokljuka in 18-19 and a current 4th spot in the standings. Braisaz-Bouchet is another outsider to keep an eye on, being 3rd in 18-19 and scoring a 14th, 9th and 4th position in the last three races. Hauser was 50th in 18-19, but was 3rd in the last two races this season, and has since won a 1st place so she is in very good shape.

The Men’s Pursuit is harder to predict with the obvious dependency on the Sprint results. Laegreid, JTB, and Dale lead the standings, and JTB also won in 18-19 in Pokljuka. Tarjei Boe has been improving since the start of this season (12-7-7-3) and was 6th in 18-19. QFM was 2nd in 18-19, has won a race this season, but has been very inconsistent. Loginov is an outsider again, 3rd in 18-19 but the highest position of 17th this season, as is Hofer with an 8th position in 18-19 and a 5th spot in the last race.

Women’s Pursuit – Wierer and Roeiseland, 6th and 2nd in the current standings and 2nd and 5th in 18-19 have a good chance for a top 5, but based on the current season results Eckhoff again has the best cards, especially if she does well in the Sprint. Hauser and Preuss are strong outsiders again with solid scores in 18-19 and decent results this season.

Women’s Individual – Dzhima, 2nd in the standings and winning in Pokljuka in 18-19 and a 14th in 19-20 and a 2nd spot in the last race this season has the best cards for this race. Hanna Oeberg has a strong history in Pokljuka (8th in 18-19, 2nd in 19-20) but this season has not been great for her. Hauser was 9th and 7th in Pokljuka and won the most recent race this season for her first World Cup win. Herrmann and Vitozzi are strong outsiders with solid results in 19-20 (1st and 4th) and Vitozzi in 18-19 as well (6th). Vitozzi’s season has had a tough current season with a highest position of 13th, and Herrmand aslo had a rough season so far.

Men’s Individual – Since JTB won last year in Pokljuka and a 7th spot in the year prior and 4th spot on the standings, it’s hard not see him as a favourite again. Fillon Maillet was 7th last year and has a 4th and 3rd this season so he’s a contender for sure. Loginov won the most recent race but with a 16th and 29th rank in the last two races in Pokljuka, he’s an outsider. Hofer and Laegreid are outsiders as well with a 1st and 2nd for Laegreid this season, and a 4th in the most recent race for Hofer, plus a 13th position last year.

Women’s Mass Start – Simon is hard to ignore for a favourite, winning the last two races this season and being 11th in last year’s race in Pokljuka. However, Hanna Oeberg won there last year and was 3rd and 2nd this season, so I would consider her to be the favorite, even over Simon. Outsider Roeiseland won the other Mass Start this season, and had two 7th places, as well as a 6th last year. Hauser was 3rd in the last race this season and 7th last year in Pokljuka so she is a strong outsider too.

Men’s Mass Start – This will be a tight one, and both Boe brothers and Fillon Maillet all being strong contenders, with Tarjei leading the standings and being 9th last year, JT winning the most recent race, being 2nd in the standings as well as last year, and QFM winning last year, 2nd in the most recent race and 4th in the standings. Eder is a strong outsider (8th last year and most recently, and 5th in the standings), as are Doll (2nd last year, a 4th and 7th this year), Peiffer (13th last year, a 1st, 11th and 5th this season) and Hofer (10th last year, and a 4th this season).

That’s it, those are the big players in these championships, but since we’re talking biatlon here, the chances of being wrong with predictions are pretty high.

Favorites for the 2021 Biathlon World Championships

Men

Women

Predicting the World Championships in Pokljuka

UPDATE – Predictions after all, and some updates to the dashboard

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