projection – real biathlon

The many statistics collected on this site allow to calculate a theoretical race time, solely based on performance data. I thought this might be an interesting exercise for the season opening 15/20km individuals – plus it’s a simple reminder where we left off. These aren’t meant to be serious predictions, of course. The individual is arguably the most unpredictable discipline and produces the most surprises anyway. Not to mention a lot usually changes during the off-season, maybe even more so this year.

Note: Projected times are calculated based on ski speed, hit rates and range times in last season’s three individuals (IN). Hit rates are rounded to the nearest full shot. The top 30 median Course Time at the 2015 Kontiolahti IN is used as reference (last IN held in Kontiolahti) and multiplied with last season’s IN ski speed in percent. The “Time Loss Shooting” column follows the idea of the Shooting Efficiency score.

Men 20 km Individual

Johannes Thingnes Bø comes out on top, “winning” by a margin of over one minute, which probably isn’t surprising, especially since Martin Fourcade is no longer there. However, he’s projected to win mostly due to his extremely high 93.3% hit rate (rounded to 19/20 hits for this), not because of his ski speed, which wasn’t that remarkable in this event last winter. Quentin Fillon Maillet and Tarjei Bø are second and third – both skied faster, but were less accurate at the shooting range in 2019–20 individuals.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

Rank	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	back from Top30 median (in %)	Projected Course Time	Total hit rate (in %)	Projected Time Loss Shooting	Projected Total Race Time	Behind
Rank	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	back from Top30 median (in %)	Projected Course Time	Total hit rate (in %)	Projected Time Loss Shooting	Projected Total Race Time	Behind
1	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	3	-1.71	43:23.8	95.00	4:30.4	47:54.2
2	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	3	-3.80	42:28.5	85.00	6:27.9	48:56.3	+1:02.1
3	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	3	-1.79	43:21.6	90.00	5:42.4	49:04.0	+1:09.8
4	Claude	Fabien	FRA	3	-0.88	43:45.6	90.00	5:31.9	49:17.5	+1:23.3
5	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	2	-0.15	44:05.1	90.00	5:27.3	49:32.4	+1:38.3
6	Doll	Benedikt	GER	3	-1.59	43:26.8	85.00	6:24.2	49:51.0	+1:56.8
7	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	2	+1.05	44:36.8	90.00	5:20.4	49:57.3	+2:03.1
8	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	3	+0.10	44:11.6	90.00	5:46.3	49:57.9	+2:03.7
9	Nawrath	Philipp	GER	2	+0.79	44:29.9	90.00	5:37.4	50:07.3	+2:13.1
10	Pidruchnyi	Dmytro	UKR	2	+1.28	44:42.9	90.00	5:24.5	50:07.4	+2:13.2
11	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	3	-0.79	43:48.2	85.00	6:19.8	50:08.0	+2:13.8
12	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	3	-1.68	43:24.6	85.00	6:43.8	50:08.4	+2:14.2
13	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	3	-0.77	43:48.5	85.00	6:25.9	50:14.4	+2:20.2
14	Fak	Jakov	SLO	3	+1.86	44:58.4	90.00	5:25.0	50:23.4	+2:29.2
15	Dale	Johannes	NOR	3	-1.00	43:42.6	85.00	6:47.1	50:29.7	+2:35.6
16	Eder	Simon	AUT	3	+2.30	45:09.8	90.00	5:23.8	50:33.6	+2:39.4
17	Moravec	Ondrej	CZE	3	+2.29	45:09.7	90.00	5:27.7	50:37.4	+2:43.2
18	Horn	Philipp	GER	3	+0.13	44:12.4	85.00	6:30.5	50:42.9	+2:48.7
19	Bjoentegaard	Erlend	NOR	2	+0.01	44:09.3	85.00	6:38.2	50:47.5	+2:53.3
20	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	2	+2.48	45:14.6	90.00	5:38.5	50:53.2	+2:59.0
21	Garanichev	Evgeniy	RUS	3	+1.24	44:42.0	85.00	6:29.4	51:11.3	+3:17.1
22	Pryma	Artem	UKR	3	+1.23	44:41.5	85.00	6:37.7	51:19.2	+3:25.0
23	Kuehn	Johannes	GER	3	-0.99	43:42.8	80.00	7:43.0	51:25.8	+3:31.6
24	Nordgren	Leif	USA	3	+4.05	45:56.3	90.00	5:36.0	51:32.3	+3:38.1
25	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	3	-0.59	43:53.3	80.00	7:47.2	51:40.5	+3:46.3
26	Claude	Florent	BEL	3	+3.51	45:42.0	90.00	6:04.8	51:46.8	+3:52.6
27	Eberhard	Julian	AUT	3	+0.93	44:33.6	80.00	7:16.7	51:50.3	+3:56.1
28	Lesser	Erik	GER	2	+5.18	46:26.2	90.00	5:24.5	51:50.8	+3:56.6
29	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	3	+2.56	45:16.7	85.00	6:37.8	51:54.5	+4:00.3
30	Dombrovski	Karol	LTU	3	+6.54	47:02.2	95.00	4:56.4	51:58.7	+4:04.5

Women 15 km Individual

Olympic champion Hanna Öberg failed to win an individual last season, however, she still won the discipline World Cup title; her as the projected winner is no surprise either. Marte Olsbu Røiseland and Monika Hojnisz-Staręga round out this theoretical podium. What’s maybe most noteworthy is the fact that eight athletes are inside a minute of the winning time (none for the men) – rather emblematic of the gender divide when it comes to competitiveness at the very top of the field in the last couple of seasons.

Race Projection based on 2019–20 IN statistics

Rank	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	back from Top30 median (in %)	Projected Course Time	Total hit rate (in %)	Projected Time Loss Shooting	Projected Total Race Time	Behind
Rank	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	back from Top30 median (in %)	Projected Course Time	Total hit rate (in %)	Projected Time Loss Shooting	Projected Total Race Time	Behind
1	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	3	-0.95	38:43.7	90.00	5:20.8	44:04.5
2	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	3	-2.64	38:04.2	85.00	6:31.6	44:35.8	+31.3
3	Hojnisz-Starega	Monika	POL	3	-0.86	38:45.8	90.00	5:52.3	44:38.1	+33.6
4	Herrmann	Denise	GER	3	-2.97	37:56.3	85.00	6:42.5	44:38.8	+34.3
5	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	3	-1.60	38:28.4	85.00	6:22.0	44:50.4	+45.9
6	Kuklina	Larisa	RUS	3	+1.47	39:40.4	90.00	5:17.3	44:57.7	+53.2
7	Preuss	Franziska	GER	3	+1.30	39:36.5	90.00	5:21.5	44:57.9	+53.4
8	Braisaz	Justine	FRA	3	-2.82	37:59.9	85.00	7:00.0	44:59.9	+55.4
9	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	3	+0.93	39:27.9	90.00	5:38.4	45:06.3	+1:01.7
10	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	3	+1.40	39:38.7	90.00	5:41.0	45:19.7	+1:15.2
11	Starykh	Irina	RUS	2	+1.94	39:51.6	90.00	5:41.9	45:33.5	+1:29.0
12	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	3	-1.34	38:34.5	85.00	7:07.2	45:41.8	+1:37.3
13	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	2	+2.43	40:03.1	90.00	5:40.1	45:43.3	+1:38.8
14	Lunder	Emma	CAN	2	+3.45	40:26.9	90.00	5:20.4	45:47.3	+1:42.8
15	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	3	-0.18	39:01.8	85.00	6:54.1	45:55.9	+1:51.4
16	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	3	+0.78	39:24.3	85.00	6:39.3	46:03.6	+1:59.1
17	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	3	-2.01	38:18.8	80.00	7:52.7	46:11.5	+2:07.0
18	Simon	Julia	FRA	3	-0.44	38:55.8	80.00	7:17.3	46:13.1	+2:08.6
19	Yurlova-Percht	Ekaterina	RUS	3	+1.42	39:39.3	85.00	6:35.0	46:14.3	+2:09.8
20	Kristejn Puskarcikova	Eva	CZE	3	+3.93	40:38.3	90.00	5:45.5	46:23.7	+2:19.2
21	Todorova	Milena	BUL	2	+4.26	40:45.8	90.00	5:58.5	46:44.3	+2:39.8
22	Egan	Clare	USA	3	+1.94	39:51.4	85.00	6:56.9	46:48.3	+2:43.8
23	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	3	+3.12	40:19.3	85.00	6:31.1	46:50.4	+2:45.8
24	Bescond	Anais	FRA	3	+0.02	39:06.6	80.00	7:44.3	46:50.9	+2:46.4
25	Gasparin	Aita	SUI	3	+3.08	40:18.3	85.00	6:33.5	46:51.8	+2:47.3
26	Fialkova	Paulina	SVK	2	+0.01	39:06.2	80.00	7:46.4	46:52.6	+2:48.1
27	Merkushyna	Anastasiya	UKR	3	+4.15	40:43.4	85.00	6:18.5	47:02.0	+2:57.5
28	Rieder	Christina	AUT	3	+5.91	41:24.7	90.00	5:52.0	47:16.8	+3:12.3
29	Schwaiger	Julia	AUT	3	+4.09	40:41.8	85.00	6:37.9	47:19.7	+3:15.2
30	Zdouc	Dunja	AUT	2	+6.97	41:49.4	90.00	5:33.0	47:22.5	+3:17.9

Projection for the season opener

Men 20 km Individual

Women 15 km Individual

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