2022 Winter Olympics – real biathlon

Who are the favorites for the opening biathlon event at 2022 Winter Olympics? Here are the overall relay performances scores for the top 10 nations in the Mixed Nations Cup score (team performances this season).

Note: The scores are standard scores (or z-scores), indicating how many standard deviations (SD) an athlete is back from the World Cup mean (negative values indicate performances better than the mean). The Total Performance Score is calculated by approximating the importance of skiing, hit rate and shooting pace using the method of least squares (for more details, see here and here), and then weighting each z-score value accordingly.

Norway – Average Performance Score: -1.16

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
1	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	3	4.0	46.3	-1.35	-1.24	-1.86	-1.53
1	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	3	4.0	46.3	-1.52	0.05	0.57	-0.54
1	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	4	1.0	60.0	-1.06	-1.06	-0.77	-0.95
1	Boe	Johannes T.	NOR	4	1.0	60.0	-1.93	-1.59	-1.17	-1.60

France – Average Performance Score: -1.06

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
2	Chevalier-Bouchet	Anais	FRA	4	4.0	49.5	-1.28	0.44	-1.66	-1.22
2	Simon	Julia	FRA	3	1.7	56.0	-1.26	-0.37	-1.07	-1.08
2	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	3	3.0	49.3	-1.20	-0.41	0.27	-0.55
2	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	3	3.0	49.3	-1.49	-1.47	-1.24	-1.39

Belarus – Average Performance Score: -0.95

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
3	Alimbekava	Dzinara	BLR	4	5.5	44.0	-1.23	-1.24	-1.71	-1.41
3	Sola	Hanna	BLR	5	6.2	41.6	-1.46	0.42	0.50	-0.49
3	Labastau	Mikita	BLR	4	5.8	42.3	-0.88	-0.74	-1.15	-0.96
3	Smolski	Anton	BLR	5	5.8	41.4	-1.09	-0.96	-0.72	-0.94

Germany – Average Performance Score: -0.87

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
4	Voigt	Vanessa	GER	4	4.8	41.0	-0.71	-1.04	-0.69	-0.74
4	Herrmann	Denise	GER	3	4.3	42.0	-1.61	-0.19	0.56	-0.62
4	Doll	Benedikt	GER	3	4.0	45.0	-1.17	-0.59	-0.42	-0.81
4	Nawrath	Philipp	GER	3	3.3	46.7	-1.35	-1.23	-1.28	-1.31

Sweden – Average Performance Score: -0.78

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
5	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	3	2.7	50.3	-1.26	0.75	0.20	-0.47
5	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	3	2.7	50.3	-2.19	-0.57	-0.49	-1.35
5	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	4	6.0	38.3	-1.37	-0.74	-0.43	-0.94
5	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	4	6.0	38.3	-0.86	0.27	0.12	-0.35

ROC – Average Performance Score: -0.74

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
6	Nigmatullina	Uliana	RUS	3	4.0	47.3	-0.63	-0.37	0.08	-0.33
6	Reztsova	Kristina	RUS	5	3.2	50.0	-1.30	-0.35	-1.28	-1.18
6	Loginov	Alexandr	RUS	4	2.3	52.5	-1.55	-0.45	-0.25	-0.93
6	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	3	2.7	50.0	-1.53	0.52	0.47	-0.53

Italy – Average Performance Score: -0.64

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
7	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	5	7.2	36.6	-0.82	-0.57	-1.62	-1.09
7	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	4	5.8	38.8	-0.72	0.41	0.54	-0.11
7	Bormolini	Thomas	ITA	5	7.4	35.6	-0.96	0.04	0.13	-0.42
7	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	3	6.7	37.0	-0.79	-1.01	-1.11	-0.94

Ukraine – Average Performance Score: -0.53

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
8	Semerenko	Valentina	UKR	3	10.0	31.0	-0.23	-0.37	-0.32	-0.28
8	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	4	8.5	33.5	-0.74	0.36	0.13	-0.28
8	Pryma	Artem	UKR	5	6.8	36.6	-0.30	-0.48	-0.75	-0.50
8	Pidruchnyi	Dmytro	UKR	5	6.8	36.6	-0.91	-0.96	-1.29	-1.06

Czech Republic – Average Performance Score: -0.43

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
9	Jislova	Jessica	CZE	5	9.0	33.2	-0.46	-0.96	-0.88	-0.68
9	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	5	9.0	33.2	-1.13	-0.22	0.50	-0.40
9	Karlik	Mikulas	CZE	4	13.3	27.8	-0.64	0.45	1.05	0.13
9	Krcmar	Michal	CZE	4	11.8	29.3	-0.80	-0.59	-0.78	-0.77

Austria – Average Performance Score: -0.37

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Rank (avg)	Points (avg)	Ski Speed Score	Hit Rate Score	Range Time Score	Total Performance Score
10	Schwaiger	Julia	AUT	4	12.5	29.3	-0.16	-0.28	0.44	0.06
10	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	3	8.3	38.7	-1.03	0.54	0.21	-0.37
10	Eder	Simon	AUT	5	11.2	32.8	-0.54	-0.58	-1.09	-0.76
10	Leitner	Felix	AUT	4	13.3	27.8	-0.59	-0.42	-0.15	-0.40

Individual Olympic gold medals in biathlon (1960 – 2022)

Olympic Mixed Relay Projection

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