Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

The season is already more than halfway over. Who managed to improve their ski form during the winter? In this post, I looked at changes in ski speed for World Cup trimester 1 compared to World Cup trimester 2 (November/December 2020 vs. January 2021). For patrons, I recently updated the comparisons bonus section – there you can compare all shooting and skiing stats on your own, not only season-to-season, but also by trimester now.

Note: Only athletes with at least 5 non-team races in trimester 1 and trimester 2 of the current season are included in the tables. “Back from Top30 median” is the percentage back from each race’s top 30 median Course Time (arithmetic mean per trimester).

Men

Surprise podium finisher Felix Leitner managed to improve his ski speed by roughly 1.3% compared to pre-Christmas races. Lukas Hofer improved by virtually the same amount, although he did so on a much higher level (he was the fourth-fastest skier overall for trimester 2). A lot has been made about Johannes Thingnes Bø not dominating as he did in previous seasons, however, his ski speed certainly isn’t to blame; he set the top course time in 5 out of 6 races in January!

Jakov Fak had a great start to his season (four top 10s in a row), but his ski speed is now trending in the wrong direction before the upcoming world championships in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson‘s speed has declined 1.4% post-Christmas, his average ski rank is 10.9 positions lower. Fabien Claude isn’t doing much better, he also has a ski rank now roughly ten places lower compared to World Cup trimester 1.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Leitner	Felix	AUT	6	19.8	-16.6	+0.71	-1.29
2	Hofer	Lukas	ITA	6	6.2	-7.2	-1.51	-1.26
3	Guigonnat	Antonin	FRA	6	20.0	-11.0	+0.44	-1.16
4	Eliseev	Matvey	RUS	5	18.8	-17.0	+1.07	-1.07
5	Doll	Benedikt	GER	6	12.5	-3.5	-0.92	-0.92
6	Finello	Jeremy	SUI	5	18.4	-9.2	+0.26	-0.90
7	Peiffer	Arnd	GER	6	11.5	-6.5	-0.73	-0.90
8	Boe	Johannes Thingnes	NOR	6	1.3	-1.1	-3.36	-0.70
9	Desthieux	Simon	FRA	6	14.7	-4.9	-0.15	-0.60
10	Eder	Simon	AUT	6	34.0	-5.2	+2.04	-0.54
11	Fillon Maillet	Quentin	FRA	5	8.6	-2.4	-1.11	-0.47
12	Laegreid	Sturla Holm	NOR	6	9.7	-3.9	-0.95	-0.41
13	Komatz	David	AUT	6	40.8	-5.6	+3.18	-0.37
14	Latypov	Eduard	RUS	6	16.2	-2.7	+0.18	-0.23
15	Dale	Johannes	NOR	6	3.0	-3.1	-1.99	-0.02
16	Jacquelin	Emilien	FRA	6	10.5	+0.3	-0.71	+0.10
17	Boe	Tarjei	NOR	6	6.0	+1.4	-1.55	+0.23
18	Fak	Jakov	SLO	6	23.2	+3.2	+0.71	+0.25
19	Ponsiluoma	Martin	SWE	6	7.8	+2.2	-1.40	+0.27
20	Rastorgujevs	Andrejs	LAT	5	22.8	+2.2	+0.82	+0.32
21	Lesser	Erik	GER	6	21.5	+2.8	+0.70	+0.34
22	Weger	Benjamin	SUI	6	24.8	+4.6	+0.98	+0.39
23	Femling	Peppe	SWE	5	42.2	-9.7	+4.06	+0.41
24	Bionaz	Didier	ITA	5	44.6	+0.2	+3.65	+0.45
25	Christiansen	Vetle Sjaastad	NOR	5	18.2	+4.9	+0.11	+0.74
26	Loginov	Alexander	RUS	5	21.2	+7.5	+0.52	+0.77
27	Bocharnikov	Sergey	BLR	5	32.6	+5.1	+1.98	+0.92
28	Claude	Fabien	FRA	6	19.8	+9.6	+0.39	+1.07
29	Samuelsson	Sebastian	SWE	6	19.2	+10.9	+0.26	+1.39

Women

Elena Kruchinkina, who set the fastest course time in the first Oberhof sprint (before that she never had a top 3 course time), is the most improved skier among regular female starters: 2.4% faster compared to December and her average ski rank is now 16.5 positions lower. Yuliia Dzhima and Svetlana Mironova come second and third, skiing 2.0% and 1.6% faster respectively. Two-time winner Julia Simon improved almost as much percentage-wise, but more importantly, she was the fourth-fastest skier in January.

Monika Hojnisz-Staręga is missing here, because she only appeared in three races in January, however, she would have topped the ranking, 3.4% faster than in trimester 1. Dorothea Wierer‘s skiing has improved slightly, but her average ski rank in January (16.8) is still way behind her average from last season (10.0). Elvira Öberg and Mona Brorsson have been struggling in recent races, both roughly 3% slower in January.

Changes in Ski Speed World Cup Trimester 1 vs. World Cup Trimester 2 | 2020–21 season

No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
No	Family Name	Given Name	Nation	Races	Ski Rank (avg)	Change	back from Top30 median (in %)	Change
1	Kruchinkina	Elena	BLR	5	10.2	-16.5	-0.84	-2.39
2	Dzhima	Yuliia	UKR	5	23.0	-18.6	+0.81	-1.96
3	Mironova	Svetlana	RUS	6	12.2	-13.3	-0.57	-1.59
4	Simon	Julia	FRA	6	6.5	-12.8	-1.57	-1.42
5	Hettich	Janina	GER	6	27.5	-15.3	+1.62	-1.32
6	Hinz	Vanessa	GER	5	30.8	-14.2	+1.88	-1.15
7	Kaisheva	Uliana	RUS	6	25.8	-13.3	+1.55	-1.02
8	Vittozzi	Lisa	ITA	5	21.2	-10.2	+0.95	-0.88
9	Herrmann	Denise	GER	6	4.2	-4.2	-1.90	-0.65
10	Zdouc	Dunja	AUT	6	36.2	-15.4	+3.16	-0.55
11	Wierer	Dorothea	ITA	6	16.8	-4.3	+0.11	-0.49
12	Eckhoff	Tiril	NOR	6	2.3	-3.2	-2.38	-0.44
13	Hauser	Lisa Theresa	AUT	6	10.5	-2.2	-0.76	-0.39
14	Pavlova	Evgeniya	RUS	5	24.4	-5.1	+1.09	-0.35
15	Roeiseland	Marte Olsbu	NOR	6	2.8	-1.7	-2.24	-0.28
16	Davidova	Marketa	CZE	6	6.5	-0.4	-1.29	+0.14
17	Preuss	Franziska	GER	6	12.7	+0.6	-0.39	+0.17
18	Lunder	Emma	CAN	5	35.8	-1.3	+2.59	+0.18
19	Bescond	Anais	FRA	6	19.0	+3.0	+0.34	+0.18
20	Persson	Linn	SWE	6	23.3	+4.0	+0.68	+0.35
21	Alimbekava	Dzinara	BLR	6	15.7	+1.4	+0.12	+0.46
22	Braisaz-Bouchet	Justine	FRA	6	7.8	+2.1	-1.03	+0.59
23	Oeberg	Hanna	SWE	6	16.7	+4.7	-0.09	+0.62
24	Chevalier-Bouchet	Anais	FRA	6	13.2	+5.7	+0.08	+1.23
25	Tandrevold	Ingrid Landmark	NOR	5	20.0	+12.9	+0.58	+1.86
26	Egan	Clare	USA	6	34.7	+6.6	+3.12	+1.88
27	Knotten	Karoline Offigstad	NOR	6	47.3	+14.4	+4.56	+2.67
28	Oeberg	Elvira	SWE	6	24.5	+17.8	+1.25	+2.89
29	Brorsson	Mona	SWE	5	46.6	+17.7	+4.72	+3.17

Overall, the Swedes arguably stand out the most, doing particularly poorly after Christmas – all of their regular starters declined in the new year (often by a lot). Alternatively, you could look at it the other way around: they simply outperformed, especially in Kontiolahti, and now regressed to a more normal level.

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Ski speed – First vs. second trimester

Men

Women

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