Ski Speed over the last 14 years

Here’s how the average ski speed of the World Cup top 40 evolved in the last 14 years. Keep in mind I can only approximate the speed through course times and course length; this is not a very precise method (minor mistakes should cancel each other out over the course of a season though). The top 40 athletes should be affected almost equally by possible methodical errors. Thus the speed values might be off by a few decimals, but the comparability season-to-season is still there.

The skiing speed of the men’s top 40 is getting (a lot) faster. Since 2001–02, both the median and the average speed of the top 40 increased by 1.7 km/h. The median skier in 2014–15 (25.8 km/h) was faster than the top skier in 2001–02 (25.1 km/h). All quartiles show a clear upwards trend. Percentage-wise, the ski speed of the median skier improved by about 7.1 %.

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	25.1	25.3	24.9	25.3	25.2	25.6	26.1	25.7	25.9	25.7	25.9	26.4	26.6	26.2	+1.1
1st quartile	24.4	24.5	24.2	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.5	25.3	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.9	25.9	+1.5
Median	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.6	25.2	25.1	25.2	24.8	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
3rd quartile	23.7	24.3	23.6	24.1	24.1	24.5	25.0	24.7	25.0	24.7	24.9	25.4	25.6	25.6	+1.9
Minimum	22.1	23.6	22.9	22.7	23.5	23.9	24.2	24.4	24.6	24.1	24.4	25.0	25.1	24.9	+2.7
Men	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	24.5	24.7	24.4	24.6	24.6	24.9	25.6	25.3	25.6	25.4	25.4	26.0	25.8	26.0	+1.5
Top 20 avg	24.3	24.5	24.3	24.5	24.5	24.8	25.4	25.2	25.4	25.2	25.3	25.9	25.8	25.9	+1.6
Top 40 avg	24.1	24.4	24.0	24.3	24.3	24.7	25.2	25.0	25.2	24.9	25.1	25.7	25.7	25.8	+1.7
Top 60 avg	23.7	24.3	23.9	24.1	24.2	24.5	25.1	24.8	25.1	24.7	25.0	25.5	25.6	25.6	+1.9

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

The chart for the women looks distinctively different. The ski speed of the top 40’s median skier increased by 1.0 km/h since 2001–02 (+4.7%). During the first 5 years the speed actually declined. The fastest skier has been pretty stable (between 22.8 km/h and 23.1 km/h) for 6 years in a row (2007-2012), before hitting new all-time highs in the last two seasons.

The big ups and downs in the women’s chart could have reasons beyond pure ski form, e.g. changes in the women’s course difficulty year-to-year, or it could just be a statistical anomaly. I can’t fully explain the curve. It’s possible the courses have slowly been brought in line with the more difficult laps of the men during the first half of the last decade?

Top 40	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Maximum	22.5	21.9	22.5	21.5	21.6	21.9	22.8	22.8	22.9	23.0	23.0	23.1	23.3	23.6	+1.1
1st quartile	21.9	21.2	21.3	21.0	20.9	21.1	21.9	22.3	22.3	22.2	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+0.9
Median	21.3	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.8	21.5	21.9	22.1	21.9	21.8	21.9	22.4	22.3	+1.0
3rd quartile	21.0	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.3	21.5	21.8	21.3	21.5	21.8	22.2	22.1	-1.0
Minimum	20.2	20.2	19.8	19.2	19.8	19.9	20.8	20.8	20.8	20.8	21.0	21.0	22.0	21.7	-1.5
Women	2001 –02	2002 –03	2003 –04	2004 –05	2005 –06	2006 –07	2007 –08	2008 –09	2009 –10	2010 –11	2011 –12	2012 –13	2013 –14	2014 –15	Diff.
Top 10 avg	22.0	21.3	21.6	21.1	21.0	21.3	22.1	22.5	22.4	22.4	22.4	22.6	22.8	23.0	+1.1
Top 20 avg	21.8	21.2	21.3	20.9	20.8	21.1	21.9	22.2	22.3	22.3	22.1	22.3	22.6	22.8	+1.0
Top 40 avg	21.4	21.0	21.0	20.6	20.6	20.9	21.6	21.9	22.0	21.8	21.8	22.0	22.4	22.4	+1.0
Top 60 avg	21.1	20.7	20.7	20.4	20.4	20.7	21.5	21.7	21.8	21.7	21.6	21.8	22.3	22.3	+1.2

All values are average speed in km/h; Diff.–difference between 2001–02 and 2014–15 seasons

Comparing skiing performances over longer periods is always tricky, certainly more difficult than comparing shooting results. The ski speed is not only affected by the courses (which is a major factor, since World Cup locations change every year), but also by weather. Three or four races during heavy snow fall for example will have a huge impact on the season average.
The increase of ski speed in just 14 years – 4.7% for the women, 7.1% for the men – is substantial. However, a good part of that probably comes down to technology: better working conditions due to waxing trucks, but also general advancements of ski manufacturers and modern waxes will have played its part. The top woman today (23.6 km/h) is just as fast or faster than the slowest male skier before 2006–07 (on easier courses though).